Climate Change: cause and Impact

Climate change:
Cause and impact

What is climate change?

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It can be a change in the average weather or a change in the distribution of weather events. Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

Average weather includes all the features we associate with the weather such as temperature, wind patterns and precipitation.

Global warming and climate change
The terms ‘global warming’ and ‘climate change’ are often used interchangeably, but there is a difference:
Global warming is the gradual increase of the Earth’s average surface temperature, due to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Climate change is a broader term. It refers to long-term changes in climate, including average temperature and rainfall.

Greenhouse effect
Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gases
Carbon dioxide
Atmospheric methane
Nitrous oxide
Ozone
Chlorofluorocarbons
Sulfur hexafluoride
Hydro fluorocarbon
Nitrogen trifluoride
Sources of GHGs
Energy Sector
Energy Industry
Manufacturing Industries and Construction
Transport
Residential Sector
Commercial
Agriculture
Industrial processes
Mineral products
Chemical industry
Metal production
Production of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride
Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride
Sources of GHGs
Agriculture Sector
Enteric fermentation
Manure management
Rice cultivation
Agricultural soils
Prescribed burning of savannas
Field burning of agricultural residues
Waste
Solid waste disposal on land
Wastewater handling
Waste incineration
Landuse Change and Forestry
Conversion of Land
Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

Global warming
Past 1000 year changes in temperature and
CO2 & CH4 concentrations
Ice melting

Changes in Gangotri Glacier, Indian Himalaya
Cracks in ice bars

Physical and socio-economic settings of Bangladesh
Geophysical location makes the country most vulnerable to climate change Impacts Himalayans in the north
Sea (the Bay of Bengal) in the south with long coast
Vast deltaic floodplain and riverine Charland

Large population with low resource base
High intensity or widespread deep poverty, hunger and food insecurity Frequent natural and man-made disasters
Poor governance and institutional weakness
Climate change impacts
Climate change risks bring additional threat to:
Overall development of the country
Poverty alleviation and livelihood promotion
Sectoral impacts
Human Health impacts
Increase of vector born diseases
Ecosystem Impacts
Coastal wetland loss from sea level rise
Increase of salinity
Agriculture Impacts
Adverse effect on wheat, potato, Boro yield
Loss of agricultural lands
Water Resources Impacts
Increase of drought, intensity of flood and cyclone
Market Impacts
Increase energy demand in winter for heating and summer for cooling Infrastructure and rural development
Disaster preparedness and risk reduction

Climate change impacts in coastal areas
Increasing salinity and water logging
Agricultural land under salt water
Loss of crop diversity and agriculture productivity
Loss of livelihoods and food insecurity
Threat of sea level rise and human displacement
18-20% coastal land will go under water
People will be displaced from their homes and occupations
35 millions people will be displaced by 2050 in Bd.
Rural to urban migration: increasing pressures on cities
International migration: country boundary threatened
Climatic extreme events: cyclones, tidal surge and floods
Super cyclone Sidr and Nargis
Two times floods in 2007

Climate change and food insecurity
Loss of agricultural productivity and crop yields
Temperature rise
Changes in rainfall, hydrological patterns and salinity
Climate extremes: flood and cyclones
Land degradation, water stress and loss of bio-resources
Food Insecurity, malnutrition, hunger and poverty
Poor and marginal farmers are the worst suffers
Women and children are badly hit
Combined effect of climate impacts and social shocks
Demand- supply nexus, market failure and increasing food price Biofuel product: food versus fuel
Global food price hike and deadly impacts in Bangladesh.

IPCC Findings: Observed changes in climate
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations:
Increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level
Many natural systems, on all continents and in some oceans, are being affected by regional climate changes
Observed changes in many physical and biological systems are consistent with warming
Global total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions, have grown by 70% between 1970 and 2004
Most of the global average warming over the past 50 years is very likely due to anthropogenic GHG emission

IPCC Findings: Projections on future climate changes and their impacts In the current development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades
For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system Warming tends to reduce terrestrial ecosystem and ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2, increasing the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remains in the atmosphere
Sea level rise would continue for centuries even if GHG emissions were to be reduced sufficiently

Findings: Drivers and projections of future climate changes and their impacts Equilibrium climate sensitivity is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C, but the current century may experience temperature rise of 2°C or more
Major systems, sectors and regions are likely to be especially affected by climate change. The systems and sectors are:
tundra, boreal forest, mountain, Mediterranean-type, mangroves, salt marshes, coral reefs and the sea-ice biome
low-lying coasts, water resources in dry tropics and subtropics and in areas dependent on snow and ice melt, agriculture in low-latitude regions, and human health in areas with low adaptive capacity. The regions are the Arctic, Africa, small islands and Asian and African mega deltas. Within other regions, even those with high incomes, some people, areas and activities can be particularly at risk.
Impacts would be distributed unevenly: poor and developing countries would be affected most by climate change and climatic events: Floods, erosion and water logging
Drought and scarcity of water
Cyclone, salinity and sea level rise
Climate and Development Linkages

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